Three failed rainy seasons have left Kenya’s Mandera County parched and desperate. Over 300,000 residents face what the National Drought Management Authority labels an “alarm” stage drought, the gravest classification. More than 95% of surface water sources have vanished, forcing families to trek long distances for dwindling supplies. Livestock, a cornerstone of local livelihoods, are dying, and food insecurity is deepening.

Mandera is not an isolated case. Its location on the borders of Somalia and Ethiopia makes it a bellwether for the wider Horn of Africa, where climatic shocks intersect with fragile economies. The United Nations warns that over 23 million people across Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia face acute food insecurity, with millions on the brink of famine. Nearly seven million children are acutely malnourished, in urgent need of therapeutic feeding, and relief agencies are struggling to meet demand.

Climate change is driving the crisis. Rising temperatures and erratic rainfall are intensifying drought cycles in a region where pastoralism is the backbone of livelihoods. Yet climate alone does not tell the full story. Cuts to humanitarian aid and donor fatigue are leaving governments stretched, undermining responses that in the past might have contained such crises. Kenya, long regarded as a regional anchor due to its relative economic strength and aid inflows, is now showing the limits of resilience.

The stakes extend beyond borders. As water and food scarcity deepen, migration pressures will increase, conflict over grazing land may flare, and regional instability could intensify. The unfolding crisis in Mandera is a warning that even countries with robust economies and donor support are vulnerable to climate-driven humanitarian disasters—and that the Horn of Africa’s next famine could be only a heartbeat away.