As winter descends upon Afghanistan, a concerning humanitarian crisis is exacerbated by a significant influx of returnees. The UNHCR reports that nearly 150,000 Afghans have returned from Iran and Pakistan in 2026 alone, which adds to the staggering 2.9 million returns recorded in 2025 and approximately 5.4 million since October 2023. This rapid population growth has led to a sharp decline in GDP per capita, as highlighted by a World Bank report from 2025, while essential services buckle under the weight of increasing demand amidst severe winter conditions.

Surveys conducted by UNHCR reveal a bleak picture for these returnees: slightly more than half have managed to secure employment, with a troubling statistic showing that under 25% of women are able to find work. A significant portion of this population faces additional challenges, as over half are without civil documentation, while a staggering 90% struggle to survive on less than $5 a day. With 5% of returnees expressing intentions to leave Afghanistan once more and evidence suggesting a pattern of onward departures, the current wave of returns appears increasingly unsustainable without robust reintegration support.

To address these urgent needs, the UNHCR has issued an appeal for $216 million in funding for 2026. However, as of the latest report, only 8% of this appeal has been met. The situation calls for neighboring countries to uphold their commitment to providing asylum and maintain regulated pathways for those in need, lest the humanitarian crisis deepen further as winter progresses.

Sources: UNHCR statement, early 2026; World Bank report on returns and GDP, 2025