Tensions in South Sudan have significantly escalated in recent days, with sporadic fighting threatening to reignite the civil war that the country endured for years. The fragile peace deal signed by President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar in 2018, which had ended a devastating five-year conflict, is now at risk of unraveling. As the situation deteriorates, the country stands at a precarious crossroads, with the threat of a return to all-out war looming once again.

Last week, Kiir’s government arrested two ministers and several high-ranking military officials who were closely aligned with Vice President Machar. The timing of these arrests has raised alarms, coinciding as they did with a surge in hostilities across various regions of the country. Many observers view the detentions as a sign of rising political tensions and the breakdown of the fragile peace that had been holding since the end of the civil war.

In the northern part of the country, in Nasir, a series of violent clashes between government forces and the ‘White Army,’ an armed militia group closely tied to Machar, has led to heavy casualties. Dozens of soldiers, including a high-ranking general, have been killed. The White Army, known for its brutal tactics during the civil war, continues to be a major point of contention between Kiir and Machar’s forces. This latest round of violence in Nasir only intensifies fears that South Sudan could be on the brink of returning to full-scale conflict.

Meanwhile, in Yambio, ethnic violence has erupted following the removal of the region’s governor, an act seen by many as a direct violation of the 2018 peace agreement. The accord specifically mandated that governors in ethnically sensitive regions, such as Yambio, must come from minority groups in order to prevent conflicts and ensure a fair distribution of power. The governor’s removal has led to widespread displacement, further fueling the ethnic tensions that have plagued South Sudan for decades.

As the violence spreads and political divisions deepen, there is growing concern that the fragile peace established in 2018 could collapse, dragging South Sudan back into a cycle of war and suffering. The international community and regional actors must urgently intervene to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control and to help preserve the peace process that remains South Sudan’s best hope for stability.